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Trump’s Second Indictment: Will It Impact His 2024 Prospects?

June 12, 2023 | By Kali Girl

According to CNN, former President Donald Trump faces unprecedented charges in a federal court indictment for mishandling classified documents post-presidency. This marks the second indictment of a former president, with the first being Trump himself earlier this year. These charges carry even more weight as Trump pursues another presidential campaign.

How will this indictment impact his campaign trail?

A recent survey by ABC News/Washington Post in early May asked Americans if they believed Trump should face criminal charges for his alleged involvement with classified documents. The results showed that 54% of Americans supported criminal charges, while only 38% disagreed.

These numbers may initially appear damaging for Trump. However, it’s worth noting that a previous ABC News/Ipsos poll conducted after Trump’s indictment in New York for alleged hush money payments to Stormy Daniels revealed that 50% of Americans believed he should face charges, while only 33% disagreed.

The proportions of “yes” and “no” responses regarding both indictments were similar across both surveys. Surprisingly, Trump did not experience a decline in his polling numbers after the New York indictment. His general election polls against President Joe Biden remained close.

Prior to the New York indictment, Biden held a slight lead of one point in an average of national surveys. Currently, Biden and Trump are tied on average in national polls.

Trump’s potential loss to Biden could hinge on Republicans deserting him. However, pre-indictment polls show that’s unlikely. Only 17% of Republicans in an ABC/Post poll felt Trump should face charges for mishandling classified documents, while 75% opposed it.

Yet, there are indications that Trump’s post-New York indictment popularity boost has plateaued and even declined slightly. Defeating Trump in a GOP primary is possible, but whether another indictment can erode his Republican support remains uncertain.

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